IPO · FLOAT · LOCKUPSIPO · float · lockup calendar
Jul 30 desk · Aug 5 2026 John drops (GROOT · lockups · IPO tab)
Trade the float calendar, not the IPO story.
- Mark SPCX unlocks −2 weeks
- Use Tesla 2010 as teaching case
- Map future listings to public proxies
- Assuming eligible shares = forced selling
- Using private marks as IPO targets
- Adding high-β into known unlock weeks
Thin float + staggered lockups (SpaceX) are the template for PsiQuantum / Figure-class later. Supply events move theme beta.
Cyan = thin float · Amber = mid · Red = near-full free float (day-366 class). Eligible ≠ will sell.
Must watch — SpaceX first public earnings (Aug 4) starts the unlock clock (~Aug 6).
~911.5M SpaceX shares become sellable first unlock — larger than initial public float; calendar through Dec.
Seven-layer humanoid stack (mapped on Humanoids). OEM-agnostic.
Re-check comment threads when you can — more signal often lives there.
~4.2% base / ~4.9% with full greenshoe. Thin float = high vol both ways.
Opened ~$150 area; early sessions ran well above IPO before mean-reverting under supply narrative.
| Date | Event | Shares | Float ≈ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | IPO day Initial public float only. | 555.6M | 4.9% |
| 2026-08-06 | First major unlock (post-Q2 earnings +2 sessions) John drop: ~911.5M insider/early shares sellable — larger than initial float. Eligible ≠ will sell. | 911.5M | 12% |
| 2026-08–Sep | Time tranches (70/90/105/120/135d) Incremental ~7% of locked pool at each step; +30% price-trigger can accelerate some early release. | — | — |
| 2026-Q3+ | Post-Q3 earnings unlock Additional ~28% of locked block becomes eligible after Q3 report (public summaries). | — | — |
| 2026-12-09 | ~180-day remainder Non-Musk lockups often cited around day 180 (~Dec 2026). | — | 50% |
| 2027-06 | Day-366 mega unlock (Musk / significant holders) Largest step: Musk ~46% stake eligibility in some models — float jump ~51%→~97%. | — | 97% |
- Live textbook for Q×R private → public (PsiQuantum / Figure-class later).
- Aug 6 unlock: supply event for high-β risk appetite — not a humanoid pure-play signal.
- TSLA = Optimus free-option + association narrative, not SpaceX equity substitute.
Fell ~15% the session after lockup expiry — classic supply print.
Historical parallel: pre-profit IPO → 180-day lockup → unlock-day volatility. Teaching case for future robotics listings.
- Seasoned public — IPO math is educational, not a live float map.
- Book role today: tiny Optimus free-option + physical-AI narrative.
- Use Dec 2010 drop when explaining day-180 supply to future Q×R IPOs.
| Name | Status | Path | Float lesson | Public proxies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PsiQuantum | private | Photonic FTQC · mega-round narrative | S-1: lockup length, early-release %, primary vs secondary, vest cliffs. | NVDA · KEYS · LITE · COHR · QTUM · INFQ/RGTI |
| Figure-class humanoid OEMs | private | US valuation tier / low units | Expect SpaceX-style thin float + narrative + unlock calendar. | MP · 6324.T · ON · TSLA (tiny) · ISRG |
| Foundation AI (Skild / PI) | private | Sim-to-real software | Skip private; if public, hybrid software duration risk. | NVDA · KEYS |
- Eligible to sell ≠ will sell.
- Never use private mark as tomorrow's IPO price.
- Mark unlock dates −2 weeks; reduce high-β into known supply.
- Employee RSU cliffs ≠ IPO lockup.
- Theme expression stays components + liquid pure-plays until float seasons.
IPO desk as of 2026-08-05 · verify against latest prospectus / 8-K before any sizing